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Summary: Evidence that shall-issue concealed-carry laws may increase violent crime is limited. Evidence for the effect of shall-issue laws on total homicides, firearm homicides, robberies, assaults, and rapes is inconclusive. An explosion of research into the effects of shall-issue laws on violent crime was triggered in by the publication of analyses using county-level data from to Using these data, Lott and Mustard concluded that states implementing shall-issue laws saw significant decreases in rates of violent crime, murder, rape, and assault.
Their "more guns, less crime" conclusion was immediately controversial and led to a proliferation of studies exploring the robustness of gun control research paper help study's findings to alternate model specifications and to improvements or expansions to the data series.
The table below lists studies from this early period of responses to Lott and Mustard gun control research paper help, as well as their counter-responses. Two important reviews of the scientific literature on gun policy effects—one by the National Research Council NRCa part of the National Academy of Sciences NRC,and one by the Community Preventive Services Task Force, established by the U.
Department of Health and Human Services Hahn et al. In their review of existing studies examining shall-issue laws, Hahn et al. NRC reviewed much of the same literature and reanalyzed data that were common to many of these analyses: a panel data set originally spanning —, then expanded through After reviewing many of the studies listed in the table below, the NRC panel, with one member dissenting, concluded:.
Some studies find that right-to-carry laws reduce violent crime, others find that the effects are negligible, and still others find that such laws increase violent crime. The committee concludes that it is not possible to reach any scientifically supported conclusion because of a the sensitivity of the empirical results to seemingly minor changes in model specification, b a lack of robustness of the results to the inclusion of more recent years of data during which there were many more law changes than in the earlier periodand c the statistical imprecision of the results.
The evidence to date does not adequately indicate either the sign or the magnitude of a causal link between the passage of right-to-carry laws and crime rates. Furthermore, this uncertainty is not likely to be resolved with the existing data and methods. If further headway is to be made, gun control research paper help, in the committee's judgment, new analytical approaches and data are needed.
a These studies are treated in our analysis as being superseded by later studies by the same authors, gun control research paper help. b This same paper was earlier circulated as Lott, Plassmann, and Whitley In addition to the sensitivity of results to minor changes in model specification noted by the Gun control research paper help report, these early studies suffered from multiple serious problems with data and methodology that lead us to discount their value for informing this synthesis of evidence on the effects of shall-issue laws.
These problems include the following:. Finally, we regard a majority of these early studies as having been superseded by later work by the same authors gun control research paper help improved upon their earlier contributions to this literature.
As a result, we focus on their later efforts to evaluate the effect of shall-issue laws. We first describe studies published since that aimed to estimate the effects of concealed-carry laws on violent crime using county-level data. We then turn to studies that focused on state-level data, then studies that employed city-level data. We conclude by discussing results from a set of studies in which the objective was not to identify the effects of shall-issue laws but that nonetheless present estimates that may be considered part of the evidence base for how concealed-carry policies influence violent crime outcomes e, gun control research paper help.
Many important shortcomings of county-level crime data identified through the early studies of shall-issue laws see the table above resulted from the fact that large numbers of county police agencies do not report crime statistics to the Federal Bureau of Investigation FBI.
Moreover, the way that county crime statistics address these missing data changed abruptly in the early s, making data from the earlier part of the gun control research paper help not comparable with later data, according to the National Archive of Criminal Justice Data undated.
Nevertheless, several analyses have continued to use county-level crime data to evaluate law effects, or they have used homicide data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC 's National Vital Statistics System, which has less of a problem with missing data Loftin, McDowall, and Fetzer, Roberts used the FBI's Supplementary Homicide Reports to analyze the effect of shall-issue laws on intimate partner homicide rates using monthly county-level data spanning — The author found that the more-restrictive may-issue laws significantly increased intimate partner total homicides by 71 percent compared with shall-issue laws, but may-issue compared with shall-issue laws had an uncertain effect on intimate partner firearm homicides.
The author also found uncertain effects of concealed-carry bans compared with shall-issue laws on either overall or firearm-related intimate partner homicides. However, gun control research paper help, neither analysis clustered standard errors at the state level, so serial correlation that was unaccounted for in the panel data likely resulted in underestimated standard errors and correspondingly misleading tests of statistical significance.
Aneja, Gun control research paper help, and Zhang analyzed the county-level data set used in NRCextended throughand state-level data through The authors corrected the NRC analyses for several errors that they identified, including data-coding errors related to the timing of shall-issue legislation, an endogenous control variable arrest rateand a failure to cluster standard errors at the state level. The authors argued that the decision in NRC not to cluster the standard errors of the county-level gun control research paper help at the state level was incorrect and showed that confidence intervals CIs were badly misestimated when clustering was not accounted for.
In their preferred county-level specification including state trend effects, they found no statistically significant effects of shall-issue laws on either the level or trend of any of seven crime rates, and they found only one suggestive effect across the 14 effects they tested.
Moody et al, gun control research paper help. The revised hybrid model results in Moody et al. They found no significant association between shall-issue laws gun control research paper help either assault or robbery.
The fact that their model predicted a given outcome better than the Aneja, Donohue, and Zhang model is not sufficient to demonstrate the claim that the latter's model suffered from omitted-variable bias or that the model preferred by Moody et al.
An overfit model can predict the data exceptionally well while producing biased and unreliable coefficient estimates. Using county-level panel data spanning —, Durlauf, Navarro, and Rivers examined the sensitivity of analyses that estimate the relationship between shall-issue laws and violent crime.
They reported that use of population weights may lead to inefficient estimates and upward biases in estimates of the effect of shall-issue laws on crime. In addition, they found that hybrid or spline models are preferred to dummy models and that models that allow for heterogeneity in the effect of laws including effects that vary with region, rates of gun ownership, and the level of urbanization in an area outperform models that do not allow for variation in effects.
For the spline model specifications that the authors assessed to perform best for the outcome of violent crime, they estimated that shall-issue laws increase violent crime in the first year after law passage and that violent crime continues to increase in subsequent years. The authors concluded that, overall, there was substantial variation in the estimated effects for each model across the model space analyzed and, thus, there was little evidence that shall-issue laws generate either an increase or a decrease in crime on average.
Crifasi et al. Using a Poisson model that included year fixed effects, random effects for counties, and county-level demographic and economic covariates, the authors found that shall-issue laws were associated with a significant increase in firearm homicide rates.
Specifically, after implementing these laws, counties would be expected to see 1. The authors also included a comparison outcome, nonfirearm homicides, gun control research paper help, on the theory that, if the effect of shall-issue laws is correctly estimated, it should be found only for firearm homicides, not nonfirearm homicides.
The paper did not describe any corrections for serial correlation in the data used, without which incorrect claims of statistical significance would be expected to proliferate Schell, Griffin, and Morral, ; Aneja, Donohue, and Zhang, ; Helland and Tabarrok, Hepburn et al. Using a negative binomial model with two-way fixed effects and controlling for demographic and economic variables, including a proxy for gun ownership, the authors found uncertain effects for shall-issue laws on state homicide rates.
Estimated effects remained uncertain in subgroup analyses of adults aged 25 or older and of white men aged 35 or older see the first figure below.
Rosengart et al. One limitation was that the data covered only —, and other studies have shown the sensitivity of results to shorter periods, partly because shorter periods include observation of fewer states that have adopted shall-issue laws. The policy variable was specified as a dummy variable indicating that a shall-issue law was or was not in place.
The authors found suggestive effects that shall-issue laws increased firearm and total homicide rates. French and Heagerty tested the sensitivity of these results and similarly concluded that shall-issue laws had a suggestive effect consistent with the laws increasing firearm-related homicide rates, although estimates varied across specifications.
However, the Rosengart et al. Martin and Legault demonstrated that Lott used incorrect state crime rate estimates that differed substantially from official FBI state estimates. They replicated Lott 's model despite misgivings about its specification to demonstrate that the effects Lott reported were sensitive to this measurement error. In their replication exercise using state-level crime data from the FBI's Uniform Crime Reports spanning —, Martin and Legault 's estimates showed that shall-issue laws significantly reduced total violent crime and, specifically, aggravated assault.
They found only suggestive effects that the laws reduced rates of robbery and murder, as well as uncertain effects on rape see the second figure below. However, as with Lottthe authors did not statistically adjust for serial correlation in the panel data, and the model's ratio of estimated parameters to observations was less than one to ten, meaning the model may have been overfit, and thus its parameter estimates and their CIs may be unreliable.
Grambsch conducted a state-level analysis of total murder rates relative to the U. murder gun control research paper help from to using the 25 states that passed shall-issue laws between and She found a selection effect among states adopting shall-issue laws—namely, that states that passed shall-issue laws in this period experienced an increasing trend in murder rates prior to adoption relative to other states.
Her estimates showed that, after controlling for regression to the mean, there was either an uncertain effect or a significant positive effect of shall-issue laws on relative murder rates i.
However, the model finding significant effects the state fixed-effects model had fewer than ten observations per estimated parameter, meaning the model may have been overfit, which can lead to unreliable estimates and standard errors.
Furthermore, neither model included adjustments for serial correlation in the panel data. Using a panel of state data, Lott provided an update of his earlier analyses examining the effect of shall-issue laws on violent crime. His preferred specification included a set of dummy variables that indicated different time intervals before and after shall-issue legislation was in effect for states that passed such legislation.
Many of Lott's modeling results were presented as figures and did not indicate statistical significance. Detailed results were provided only for an analysis of homicide rates. These included information on the statistical significance of each coefficient in the model but not for a test comparing post-implementation time intervals with pre-implementation time intervals.
Lott interpreted the pattern of effects as demonstrating that homicides declined significantly after implementation of shall-issue laws, but gun control research paper help did not provide test statistics or sufficient description to clarify what specific effect was observed. The author also included coefficients and their statistical significance from dummy and spline models similar to those from his earlier work, but he did not include standard errors or test statistics.
All of the preferred models appear to have had a ratio of estimated parameters to observations that was less than one to ten, meaning the model may have been overfit, and thus the reported estimates and their CIs may be unreliable.
Similarly, it does not appear that Lott used any adjustments for serial correlation in his panel data, so some of the effects reported as statistically significant might not be after correcting these analyses Schell, Griffin, and Morral, ; Aneja, Donohue, and Zhang, ; Helland and Tabarrok, DeSimone, Markowitz, and Xu evaluated the effects of child-access prevention laws on nonfatal injuries using data from tobut they included sensitivity analyses that controlled for shall-issue laws.
Using fixed-effects Poisson regression models, they found that shall-issue laws were significantly associated with firearm assault injuries for children under age 18, as well as for adults. Specifically, their estimate suggests that, after a state implemented a shall-issue law, assault injury rates were more than double what would have been expected without the law see the second figure belowwhich would be extraordinary if true.
However, the estimated effects of shall-issue laws in this study were based primarily on implementation in one state that changed its law during the study time frame Arizona ; thus, the study offers little evidence that the observed effects are gun control research paper help to the change in the law rather than to other factors affecting the state's assault rate that occurred around the same time the law was changed.
Webster, Crifasi, gun control research paper help, and Vernick analyzed state-level data from togun control research paper help, using generalized least-squares regression models to estimate the effect of shall-issue laws on age-adjusted homicide rates.
They found suggestive effects indicating an association between the implementation of shall-issue laws and a percent increase in rates of nonfirearm homicide, a 6-percent increase in rates of total homicide, and an percent increase in rates of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter.
The statistical model used to arrive at these results used a large number of estimated parameters relative to observations a ratio of about one to eightmeaning the model may have been overfit, gun control research paper help, and thus its estimates and their apparent statistical significance could provide little generalizable information about the true causal effects of shall-issue laws. Gius examined the effect of shall-issue laws on gun-related murder rates using state-level data from to He gun control research paper help that states with may-issue or more-restrictive policies had higher gun-related murder rates than shall-issue states.
Relative to states with shall-issue laws, states with more-restrictive firearm-carry policies had rates of firearm homicide that were 11 percent higher see the second figure below.
However, this model did not statistically adjust for the known serial correlation in these panel data, which has been shown to result in misleadingly small standard errors Schell, Griffin, and Morral, ; Aneja, Donohue, and Zhang, gun control research paper help, ; Helland and Tabarrok, For this reason, the apparently significant effect observed in this study could be invalid.
Using their preferred specification with state-level data from to and a dummy, spline, or hybrid specification of shall-issue laws without state trends, Aneja, Donohue, and Zhang found suggestive evidence that shall-issue laws increase assaults by 8 percent see the first figure below.
In the dummy specification, shall-issue laws significantly increased rape by 12 percent, although estimates of this effect from the spline model were uncertain. The authors also found suggestive evidence that shall-issue laws increased rates of robbery, although estimates again became uncertain in other specifications. Effects of shall-issue laws on murder rates were uncertain. The authors tested the sensitivity of their results to less-parsimonious including the Lott and Mustard [] specification and more-parsimonious demographic specifications; the inclusion of state-specific time trends; the inclusion or exclusion of years that were likely to be influenced by the crack cocaine epidemic, gun control research paper help affected crime rates; and the specification of the policy variable dummy, spline, hybrid.
The authors noted that their results, which showed that the significance and sign of estimated effects varied substantially depending on the specification employed, underscored the sensitivity of gun-crime modeling estimates to modeling decisions. Foremost, the studies critiqued the decision to treat models without state-specific trends as the preferred ones.
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, time: 3:17Effects of Concealed-Carry Laws on Violent Crime | RAND
Mar 02, · An overview of the key findings from RAND's Gun Policy in America initiative, which aimed to provide objective information on what is and isn't known about the effects of different gun laws, to create tools and resources to improve the quality of research on gun policy, and improve the national debate on developing fair and effective gun policies Custom research paper editing site for university ecommerce business analyst resume. Sample business plan for a new product Pay for geography movie review custom term paper writer for hire us the things they carried thumb essay, resume for recent graduate gun essay control Free on argumentative line cook resume example Aug 15, · Gun control is a hot button issue, especially in the wake of so many recent, tragic mass shootings. It is also a polarizing issue, which means that it tends to divide people. (Read 5 Best Resources to Help With Writing a Research Paper if you need assistance researching more scholarly sources.) Whichever side of the issue you take
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